Xiao-Li Meng, Whipple V. N. Jones Professor of Statistics at Harvard and Founding Editor-in-Chief of Harvard Data Science Review, was inspired by a student to combine wine and statistics—leading to insights far beyond what they ever expected.

From wine tastings to data science, Xiao-Li Meng explores how statistics reveals simplicity in complexity – one glass, experiment, and insight at a time.

Wine, statistics & serendipity: A Harvard journey

Seeking simplicity in statistics, complexity in wine, and everything else in fortune cookies 

As we commented in our 2022 report, vintages in Napa are, it seems increasingly defined by extreme conditions. The 2023 harvest, however, was – as Neil Bernardi MW, COO at Colgin described it – “remarkably unremarkable”.  “It was a calm and collected vintage,” said winemaker Cathy Corison, who has been making wine under her eponymous label since 1987. “There was nothing that forced your hand. It wasn’t too cold, it wasn’t too hot, it wasn’t rainy. We had the luxury of time.” For Corison, it was an exemplary vintage, easily one of her favourites – although she’s not quite ready to declare it the best vintage of her career (yet, at least). Corison is not alone in such praise: throughout the valley, whispers about 2023 have been growing louder, with the vintage felt by many to be one of the best in recent history.   Weather during the year was unusually cool at times, but largely uneventful. Looking back to the months before the growing season kicked off, however, Northern California received historic levels of rainfall. With a classic Mediterranean climate, the winegrowing regions of California experience warm, dry summers, with most rain falling between October and April.  In the drought years of 2020 and 2021, Napa received a scant eight and 10 inches of rain respectively. The 2022 vintage brought welcome relief, with 26 inches of rain measured in Oakville – just about average as measured against the past 10 years. Records were smashed in 2023, however, with an astounding 58 inches of rain measured between the close of the 2022 and start of the 2023 harvest. Local reservoirs were filled to the point of overflowing, and many vineyards in lower-lying areas were under water at points during the winter.   The rain stretched into May, punctuated by heavy fog and, with soaked soils and overcast skies, budburst was delayed by about two weeks. Although most winemakers on the valley floor reported excellent fruit set, resulting in higher-than-average crop loads, this was not the case everywhere. Up on Spring Mountain at Philip Togni Vineyard, winemaker Lisa Togni explained that incoming rainstorms reach this part of Napa first, and heavy cloud cover often lingers at peak level. Humidity and wind can hinder pollination, lowering the number of berries on each cluster. Yields at Togni, while not historically low, were much lighter than average in 2023. In stark comparison, Sam Kaplan, winemaker for Arkenstone and Memento Mori, reported having to thin “aggressively” during the growing season, with higher-than-normal potential yields thanks to large, perfectly formed clusters.   Springtime temperatures were cooler than average, a trend which would continue through the summer. In June and July, temperatures never exceeded 90°F (32°C) – highly unusual compared to every vintage in the past decade, and, while August warmed up slightly, there were zero major heat events. “Bad things can happen in the first week of September,” noted winemaker and viticulturalist Steve Matthiasson. Most Napa winemakers collectively hold their breath around Labour Day weekend, now notorious for heatwaves and wildfires. In 2023, however, extreme weather never materialised. Moderate, slightly lower-than-average temperatures persisted throughout September, and as the weeks ticked by, the fruit remained on the vine, slowly and steadily accumulating sugar and flavours.   For many producers, the biggest challenge of 2023 was being patient. Given the heat spikes in recent years, Togni said she was fully prepared for harvest by 15th August. Twice she scheduled pick dates only to call them off at the last moment when additional sampling showed that the ripeness was still not at the desired level. Finally, harvest began at Togni on 2nd October – a huge difference from 2022, when harvest started on 23rd August.   As the harvest season stretched on and temperatures remained steady, the potential for rain became worrisome. With fruit projected to be hanging in mid-October and even later depending on site, the chance of rainfall increased. This also did not happen. “Everything was just perfect,” said Myriad winemaker Mike Smith, noting that while the vintage conditions were certainly unusual for recent history, in many ways, they were a return to an earlier version of normal. “No one under 40 has probably ever seen a vintage like this. They’re more used to heat and drought,” he explains.  Smith started harvesting for Myriad on 5th October, which is about three weeks later than recent vintages. He wonders, though, if perhaps other winemakers kicked off harvest too early, which is something Kaplan pondered as well, citing a lack of mid-palate density in some of the wines he’s tasted – perhaps a result of looking at the calendar too intently, especially given recent harvest trends in Napa. Picking was still underway in early November at some addresses. At Colgin, Bernardi says that their patience paid off. “When we harvested, we felt like each vine was at the absolute apex of what it could give,” he said. “The alignment of sugars and phenolics was phenomenal.” He added that, at Colgin, the vine leaves started yellowing almost immediately after harvest, confirming their hunch that the fruit was fully developed and the vines ready to go dormant.   There were no concerns over yield – the plentiful water and cooler growing season not reducing crop size, and most brought in an above-average yield, especially on the valley floor. The quality of the fruit once harvested was uniformly reported as healthy, with multiple winemakers citing fresh, natural acidity levels and ample tannins. Smith loves the colour and density of 2023, noting that extraction was quick and easy, and the fermentation smooth. For Kaplan, a challenge was maintaining the body of the wine – handling the ferments in the winery to extract enough fruit to match the structure of the wine.   Many winemakers also praised the aromatics of 2023. In a hotter vintage like 2022, many of the delicate notes can be “baked out” of the wines, explained winemaker Tony Biagi of Patria and Hourglass. In 2023, Biagi said, the combination of red and black fruit, along with floral notes, has created highly perfumed wines. In his view, the 2023s offer “spectacular power and finesse”, with all “the stuffing” to be “a superlative vintage” – producing wines that will age for at least 30 years.  What may set the 2023 wines apart is the high level of “finesse and elegance,” as described by Andy Erickson of Favia. While he believes that 2023 may not be the most Californian vintage — at least by modern standards – the wines have a lithesome quality on the palate, balancing power and grace. This was a sentiment echoed by Bernardi, who praised the “sense of weightlessness” of the wines produced at Colgin, something he says only the greatest vintages can achieve.  Comparing the vintage to any other proves challenging. More than a few, including Matthiasson, said the weather during the growing season was reminiscent of 2011 – that is, without the October rains that ultimately caused a difficult harvest that year. Lisa Togni feels 2023 is more of a classic Napa vintage with moderate conditions, seemingly cool perhaps only because of the severity of the heat in recent years. Kaplan believes that the purity of fruit in 2023 is comparable to 2018, but even more pronounced. “The wines just jump out of the glass,” he said, “They’re so perfumed and aromatic.” For Corison, the very high level of quality of 2023 is reminiscent of 2001, which she said was similarly elegant and continues to evolve gracefully.  But is 2023 the vintage of the century, as the rumours might have it? Overall, the quality in 2023 is very high. After tasting through dozens of barrel samples, it’s clear that 2023 is a vintage where it was likely more challenging to make bad wine than good wine.  While we’re already looking ahead to 2023, more than a few winemakers lamented the quick dismissal of other vintages – perhaps overlooked in a rush of quick generalisations and soundbites. Quintessa’s Wineburg believes 2023 is undeniably a great vintage, however 2022 was also great – each year has its own personality that will appeal to different palates. For Erickson, the nascent 2024 wines (a vintage he’s particularly excited about) are more typically Californian in style with density and power, while 2023 will be defined by its finesse and restraint.  The 2023 vintage is outstanding – and the wines will appeal particularly to those with a classic palate. Given the late and long, cool growing season, many – if not most – of the wines have a distinct Bordelais quality, balancing pure Californian fruit with fresh acidity and elegant, nimble body – with “a sense of weightlessness” as Bernardi put it. The tannins seem poised to integrate well into the finished wines, and there’s a sense of restraint to many of the wines that is reminiscent of older Napa. The quality in 2023 is far more homogenous – in a positive way – than in recent challenging vintages, where site specificity and the ability to make quick decisions widened the field between those that faltered and those that excelled. “We’ve seen so much awfulness,” said Togni, referencing the challenges of 2020 and 2022, “but this was a nice reminder that not every year will be difficult: 2023 was a classic, great vintage – a storybook vintage.”   Napa 2023: the vintage in brief   Heavy rain over winter and through to spring replenished water reserves, with a long, cool growing season and late harvest  Yields were generally higher than average, especially on the valley floor  Quality largely consistent across the region  Cooler season with extended hangtime produced wines of elegance and finesse  Wines combine perfumed aromatics, fresh acidity and fine tannins, with a classic style reminiscent of the Napa of yesteryear  A top vintage – one of, if not the best in recent history  Keep your eye out for the first releases of Napa’s 2023 vintage. In the meantime, read more about California or browse all current Napa 2023 listings 

Since the fruit came into the winery, Napa’s winemakers have been quietly confident about the 2023 vintage – with murmurs of greatness. Now, as the first wines from the year are released, we find out whether the vintage is as good as the rumours suggest 

Is 2023 the vintage of the century in Napa? We talk to Corison, Colgin, Arkenstone, Tony Biagi, Steve Matthiasson and more about the year and its wines 

Discover the wines of the 2023 vintage in Napa, California 

Napa 2023: vintage report   

Following on from the cooler, elegant 2018 vintage, 2019 is another excellent year for Napa – together forming an impressive duo that will be enjoyed (and inevitably compared) over the coming decades.  The preceding winter was wet, replenishing the water table and encouraging vigorous early growth. Indeed, as Danielle Aita at Colgin noted, it was still raining in May – with almost 2.5 inches that month (compared to 0.3 inches in 2018, and 0.61 in 2020). It was important for this vigour to be managed, for vines were at risk of growing more fruit than they could ripen. Aita explained how their team had to thin even more than normal, even thinning clusters by removing individual berries to maximise airflow.  A mild spring led to a warm and even summer, with few heat spikes, allowing producers to take their time to harvest, allowing for traditionally long hangtime. Although the season didn’t see the extremes of 2020 or 2022, the mercury did fluctuate, Kassidy Harris at Dominus noted – with a hot June, cooler July, then warmer end to the season. She noted how it required more intervention from the team in the vineyard, managing yield – particularly dropping “wings” or “shoulders” off clusters. This prolonged, relatively gentle heat, as the Dana team highlighted, mellowed the acidity and brought a roundness to the wines.   For Cathy Corison, it was “a fabulous vintage – almost perfect”, and one major factor was the even temperatures, with a significant diurnal shift that encouraged aromatic finesse and retained freshness. She reported temperatures in August that were 21-27˚C during the day, and dipping below 10˚C at night. With these gentle conditions, she picked later than normal, in the third week of September.  Maya Dalla Valle started picking around the same time, emphasising how it’s the last vintage she can remember being able to take her time with – the harvest stretching over several weeks rather than needing to get the fruit in as soon as possible. Aita highlighted how in early October, the temperature dropped significantly at night, slowing the ripening, and they picked in the second and third week of the month.   Temperatures were, on average, a little higher than 2018 – leading to a richer style, darker fruit profile and softer tannin structure – wines that are more classically Napa, compared to 2018’s slight Old World slant. They still, however, have a vibrancy and freshness, and while alcohol levels are higher than 2018, they are not elevated for the region, with almost all sitting below 15%. Volumes are generally good, thanks to that wet winter, a comfort given the low yields of 2020 and 2021.  As Corison noted, “When a vintage is perfect, it’s like falling off a log. Great grapes make great wine.” The winemaker’s job in a vintage like 2022, she says, is to “try not to mess it up”. Dalla Valle opted for shorter maceration times, finding the ripe, thick-skinned grapes offered tannin, colour and flavour quickly. She notes how the wines have filled out with time, offering a “quiet power” that she loves. For Harris at Dominus, it’s a very good vintage, but just an edge behind 2018, not quite as integrated in her view.  Will Harlan and Cory Empting at Promontory compare it to 1990, feeling it has more flesh and power versus 2018, needing time to reveal itself – “an old soul” of a vintage. For Aita at Colgin, the wines have minerality and real expression of place. They are much more approachable than 2018 in their youth, yet have everything needed to go the distance.  The critics all agree that it’s another very good vintage, but are divided as to whether they prefer 2018 or 2019. For Vinous’s Antonio Galloni, the 2019s are “big, bold wines that show the extroverted side of Napa Valley”. He feels it doesn’t quite have the consistency of a truly great year, such as 2018, with that vintage also offering a little more freshness that he prefers.   Lisa Perrotti-Brown MW (then still writing for the Wine Advocate) finds 2019 “classic, ripe, plush and beautifully expressive”, feeling – unlike Galloni – that it is more consistent than 2018, both in quality and volumes. For her, the 2018s are more structured with higher acidity, and may well age longer than the 2019s, however the 2019s have a generosity that is more typically Napa – and possibly more inviting.  For Jeb Dunnuck, it’s "another terrific year“ for Napa – “ripe, supple tannins, beautiful sweetness of fruit, and undeniably delicious”. He argues that it is clearly an excellent vintage, but doesn’t quite reach the levels of 2016 or 2013. The vintage in brief A wet winter and long, gentle growing season without major heat spikes High yields and quality, with a prolonged harvest period Warmer than 2018 producing richer wines with darker fruit and softer tannins Wines that are classical Napa Polished and plush, yet with freshness and alcohol levels generally sitting below 15%  Browse all 2019 Napa listings or read more about California

The 2019 vintage in Napa produced a brace of fantastic wines that are classical expressions of California’s heartland. We talk to top producers about the year and the style of wines it produced

Discover the 2019 Napa wines – talking to top producers about a plush and polished vintage, full of classically styled wines for the region

Napa 2019 vintage report

Napa 2019: plush and polished

Anyone who’s had the misfortune of tasting a de-alcoholised version knows that alcohol is key to wine. Take it away and it leaves a gaping void in the glass – stripping the liquid of body and flavour. Those attempting to craft alcohol-free alternatives look to make up for its absence with sugar or flavourings, but the results don’t come close to the real thing. And of course the very fermentation process is key to complexity – there’s a reason we aren’t collecting single-site examples of even the finest raw grape juice. But alcohol’s a hot topic – and not just because of any health considerations. Trends and shifts in climate have seen the average ABV (alcohol by volume) inch upwards. Indeed, a report last year from Liv-ex suggested the average alcohol level has leapt almost an entire 1% for both California and Bordeaux since the 1990s. While once 14 or 14.5% might have been the purview only of the New World, it’s rapidly become the norm in Bordeaux. Rising temperatures are one element, as indeed is technology and know-how – harvesting cleaner, riper fruit and more efficient winemaking. Then, of course, there’s the fashion factor – the pendulum swing, arguably driven by Robert Parker, for bold, ripe, sweet and inevitably high-alcohol wines. “He loved that weight, that impression of sweetness,” Paul Hobbs tells me. “We jumped on the wagon – but we didn’t know what we were jumping on.” A cult name, Hobbs crafts some of Napa’s highest-scoring and most expensive Cabernets; indeed, Parker named him his Wine Personality of the Year twice. Born in New York State, the Davis-trained winemaker founded his namesake estate in 1991. He’d started his career at Robert Mondavi (arriving in 1977), working at Opus One and Simi before setting up on his own, with a flurry of personal projects and list of consultancies that has grown ever since. He openly admits that he got caught up in “Parkerisation”, crafting big, bold wines – no great surprise given the scores, and sales, that followed for those who did. But he’s been pulling back in recent years, and has never quite fit the cookie-cutout for the cult Cabernet crew. Ever since he first started making his own wines in the 1990s, he’s championed native yeasts (relatively radical at the time), and no fining or filtering. While he embraces oak, he’s always been aware that it’s the quality of fruit in the vineyard, preserved by operating a flawlessly clean winery, that is key to producing fine wine. Make no mistake that Hobbs makes rich, plush wines – and the alcohol levels certainly don’t sit at 12.5% – but for him there is much more to alcohol than one number. “I didn’t give much thought to it in the beginning,” Hobbs says. “And there wasn’t really much reason to.” When he was at Mondavi, the wines tended to sit at 13.5% – but then they started to go up. “There was a time when 16% was normal,” he confesses with some amazement. “Some of these wines were difficult. They didn’t age. They would get tired,” Hobbs says. “But all that took us time to learn – no one had ever been in that domain before.” He notes that there was “a backlash” in the British press against wines that didn’t please the palates of “the Hugh Johnsons, the Jancis Robinsons and Anthony Roses”; a response he clearly feels was a little unjust. “It’s far more complex than a simple number,” he says. “15 isn’t always 15.” And it’s true – alcohol doesn’t feel the same. How many times have you looked at the label of a wine and been surprised – either for better or worse? Alcohol is one element working in tandem with a wine’s body, concentration and flavour complexity – and there’s no easy figure to tell you how it integrates with these other components. But there’s another key reason why the same alcohol level can seem so different: the nature of the alcohol. The main alcohol in wine is ethanol (a molecule with two carbons), however fermentation produces other types of alcohols – specifically superior or higher alcohols. Often known as fusel oils – from a German term “Fusel” which is colloquial for low-quality booze – these alcohols have three to six carbons in their molecular form and are significantly more viscous (hence “oils”).  While ethanol is pure and relatively neutral, these heavier superior alcohols can – in low volumes – bring flavour, texture and interest. “It’s what makes something more than vodka,” Hobbs explains. Hexanols can add herbaceous aromas; 2-phenylethanol gives a rose-like scent. But they’re also associated with headaches and hangovers. In the world of spirits, these fusel oils are what runs out of the still last – forming the “tails” of distillation, which are used to varying degrees depending on the type of spirit being produced. “Alcohol is alcohol? Well, yes and no,” says Hobbs. It's high numbers of these superior alcohols, he believes, that can make one 15% wine feel clumsy and lumbering, while another – with lower fusel oil levels – can carry the same ABV with ease. The production of these superior alcohols depends on many things – yeast strain, temperature, oxygen availability and acidity. In general, red grapes produce more of the compounds (which is partly why spirits tend to use white grapes as their base). But Hobbs thinks it ultimately comes back to the vineyard: he’s started noticing that if berries are heat-damaged, they produce more superior alcohols. “Our goal is to keep these superior alcohols as low as possible – and that’s just about harvesting not sun-damaged fruit,” Hobbs explains. Under the warmth of the Californian sun, it’s common to get sun damage early in the season, but shrivelled berries tend to fall off nascent clusters of their own accord; more concerning is fruit that can be damaged internally and then won’t go through véraison, which needs to be sorted out. Late in the season, Hobbs and his team look to walk through the vines and cut off any “shoulders” (the side cluster at the very top of a bunch of grapes) that have been exposed. With global warming, this is an increasing threat – and an element of climate change that is only now being considered. If grapes are sunburnt or shrivelled, they tend to struggle with fermentation, and the stressed yeasts produce more of the superior alcohols. “The wine is going to be fat and heavy on the palate,” says Hobbs. “You can lower the alcohol by adding water – but it doesn’t change its personality.” If the fruit is in good shape – he says – you simply don’t have that issue, even at 15.5%. And those wines, provided they’ve got the requisite balance, age amazingly. Rajat Parr (star sommelier turned winemaker) and Jasmine Hirsch (of Hirsch Vineyards) founded In Pursuit of Balance (IPOB) in 2011 to champion lighter wines that they felt “weren’t chasing after ratings from wine critics”. These “new California” wines (Jon Bonné published his book The New California Wine in 2013) tended to have lower alcohols and less oak – following the swing of the pendulum back the other way; an anti-Parker effort in many ways. I attended the last London IPOB tasting in 2016, catching the crest of the wave as the movement called it quits – feeling they’d achieved their aim of building the reputation of an alternative California. Paul Hobbs arguably sits at the opposite end of the California wine spectrum (“Should all wines be 13.5%?” he says to me, “Why is that the magic number?”) – but philosophically, they’re surprisingly aligned. It’s not about the number, it’s about the balance – and Hobbs, like any posterchild of the new California movement, will tell you that the secret lies in the vineyard. The challenge is to farm and pick the perfect fruit – to find the sweet spot between flavour, sugar and phenolic ripeness. As Hobbs says to me, “That’s the dance between man and nature.” Forget the maths; this is farming. A note on the numbers Strictly speaking, the alcohol level on any label isn’t exactly what’s in the bottle. For wines sold in the EU and UK (both those made here and imported), producers are given 0.5% leeway – meaning that what’s on the bottle is generally reflective of its contents. In the US and Australia, however, wines sold domestically can differ by as much as 1.5% from the label – meaning a wine labelled as 14% could be anything from 12.5 to 15.5%. Browse all Paul Hobbs listings or discover more Editorial

With climate change and the influence of Robert Parker, it’s undeniable that we’ve seen a rising tide of alcohol levels. But there’s much more to the conversation than a simple number – as we discovered tasting and talking with Paul Hobbs, one of Napa’s leading names

The Napa winemaker Paul Hobbs on how we perceive alcohol in wine and why the alcohol level on any label isn’t exactly what’s in the bottle. 

Paul Hobbs on alcohol in wine 

The nature of the numbers: Paul Hobbs on alcohol

The 2020 vintage in California is not one that the state’s natives are likely to forget. Wildfires ravaged the region, and the wines – now being released – are being tainted just by the idea of the smoke that those fires produced. But there is much more to be said about the year – which was also harvested and made in the midst of the covid pandemic, only adding to the immense stress of the season.  The winter was relatively warm and dry, with cool weather at flowering, a mild spring and then a hot, dry summer, although there continued to be a significant diurnal shift – perfect for ripening grapes, retaining freshness and developing aromatics. The heat struck just as producers like Cathy Corison were picking, and – unlike in 2018 or 2019 when the harvest was long – winemakers mostly looked to get the fruit in as quickly as possible. Almost everyone agrees that 2020 was set to be a fantastic vintage before the fires – with small, thick-skinned berries that had great promise. As Steve Matthiasson told us, “It was going to be an epic season.”  It’s important to be aware of the key dates for the fires. The LNU Lightning Complex started on 17th August, however it was the Glass Fire that posed the most significant threat to Napa, with that second blaze sparked on 27th September near the Silverado Trail, east of St Helena.  There are producers that chose to make no wine in 2020 (including Colgin, Joseph Phelps and Shafer), producers who made all their wines, and producers who made a reduced range. Insurance was a challenge. Those who had crop insurance weren’t able to claim if they picked any fruit – so many didn’t take the risk of harvesting what could have been flawless fruit, but also could have been tainted, leaving growers in the lurch, while those that farm their own vineyards were much more likely to give it a go. Some producers were able to share the financial burden with growers, but that wasn’t a viable choice for everyone.  Many producers frantically tested for the phenolic compounds responsible for smoke taint, but the local laboratories couldn’t handle the influx, with tests taking weeks. Some resorted to sending samples to as far away as Australia, while others were fortunate enough to be able to test in house. Mike and Leah Smith of Myriad Cellars, for example, tested all their fruit twice, sending it to Canada, to guarantee there were no free or bound phenols that could taint the wine. Togni reportedly tested their wines, but – having received the official all-clear and bottled the wines – decided not to release them as they weren’t quite convinced.  Micro-ferments were another option to help producers decide whether or not to pick, in theory testing to see if the smoke taint emerged once the fruit was fermented. The nature, however, of the compounds responsible for the taint means that they can emerge in bottle rather than immediately, meaning this offered no guarantees. There were so many complex factors at play, reputational and financial, as well as practical, that made the year a quagmire for producers to navigate. But it doesn’t mean the year should be written off entirely by wine lovers – we’ve tasted some beautiful wines from the vintage that are more than worthy of your attention.  Producers are generally divided by those who picked before and after the Glass Fire – and those who picked before that fateful date in Napa had no issues with smoke taint. There are many factors when it comes to smoke taint (covered more extensively here), including the distance from the fire and the direction of the wind, making it an inexact science. As Steve Matthiasson flagged, however, there was a challenge with ripening in 2020 – with the haze from fires reducing the light level and meaning some grapes weren’t necessarily as phenolically ripe as normal. This, combined with the fact that smoke taint compounds are held in the skins, means that cautious producers tended towards lighter extraction, and in a handful of instances producers even made rosé instead of red wine.  The hot, dry growing season meant that harvest dates were naturally set to be early, but producers who already tend to pick on the earlier side were particularly favoured. Corison had all her fruit in two and a half weeks before the Glass Fire. Her challenge was to ensure smoke didn’t get into the winery, tainting the ferments rather than fruit on the vine. She installed two industrial-grade air filters to keep the smoke out and the resulting wines are “beautiful”. The key for her was to pick as fast as she could, but the ripening season was “almost perfect”, although yields are down around 25% because of the hot conditions.  Maya Dalla Valle is another producer who made a full vintage – one she’s proud of despite it being the most stressful she’s ever produced. Their team picked in the first week of September. They washed the grapes – something that some producers do as standard (eg Dominus) – just in case there was any ash that had drifted from the first fire, using two vibrating sorting tables to shake off the excess water before it went into tank. They also chose to use a little less new oak at first, but after the first racking upped the proportions.  At Dominus, the team picked between 2nd and 27th September, with yields 40% lower than normal due to the heat and drought. They found extra selection was required with shrivelled berries from the dramatic heat spikes seen during the season. Robert Mondavi, however, only managed to make the early-picked whites and Pinot Noir from their more coastal sites, with no Cabernet from 2020.   The conditions forced the team at Promontory to pick early, and while they were already pulling back on harvest dates, they feel the 2020 season was a nudge they needed – a risk that has more than paid off with the stunning wine they produced. For Will Harlan and Cory Empting, the dry start to the season meant the vines and cropload were small, allowing the fruit to ripen sufficiently in the compact season. For them, the year is closest to 2011 or 1998, a year that will likely be consistently underrated and overperform. As vines act as a natural firebreak, few vineyards suffered any long-term damage – however Eisele is an exception, with 90 acres of hillside lost, and 1,000 vines that will need replanting. Fortunately, all their fruit was picked before the fire raged through the property.   With so much unknown about smoke taint, it’s unsurprising that critics seem to be cautious about the year. Reviews and scores are mixed. Vinous’s Antonio Galloni is quick to applaud the efforts producers made in the remarkable year, but feels that some of the wines aren’t very good. He notes, as Steve Matthiasson did, that with nature forcing some producers’ hands with harvest dates, some wines have coarse tannins, however he finds less pronounced smoke taint than in the 2017s.  Jeb Dunnuck advises that it is a year to approach “with extreme caution”, given the unpredictability of smoke taint, however states that “there are some terrific wines” – highlighting those from Bond, Carter, Crocker & Starr, Dalla Valle, Harlan, Paul Hobbs and Spottswoode, to name a few.   Lisa Perrotti-Brown MW (The Wine Independent) compares the growing season to that of 2017, but feels the resulting wines – at their best – are riper and weightier, with more purity. Although there are some wines marked by smoke taint, others are “wonderfully impressive” (indeed, she’s already given Harlan and Promontory 100 points).   The 2020 vintage is far from simple, but it shouldn’t be dismissed totally. There are some beautiful wines, totally unmarred by the year’s conditions. We won’t pretend there aren’t wines that are lesser, although we have to admit this is on hearsay alone based on our tastings so far, but – at the top of the quality spectrum, where finances allow the attention to detail required to achieve excellence – there is nothing for producers to gain by releasing flawed wines. Take these wines one by one, assessing their worth and value, and you’re guaranteed to be rewarded.  The vintage in brief  -  A vintage set to be remembered for both wildfires and the covid pandemic  -  Not every producer in the region made wine, with smoke taint an issue for some  -  A challenging year that favoured producers who pick early  -  A hot, dry season that made for low yields (reduced by 20-50%) and concentrated wines  -  Rich, ripe and concentrated  -  Despite the challenges, there are some stunning wines to be found  Browse all 2020 Napa listings or read more about California, including our dive into the issues surrounding wildfires and smoke taint  

No one is likely to forget the 2020 vintage – least of all Californians who saw their state swept by wildfires. We caught up with some of Napa’s leading producers to talk about the rest of the growing season, the implications of the fires and the style of the wines that were produced

Everything you need to know about 2020 in Napa – a challenging year with wildfires, yet some stunning wines. We talk to top producers about the vintage.

Napa 2020 vintage report

Napa 2020: digging into the difficult year 

Driving through Napa and Sonoma, the land still bears the scars of 2020. The wildfires that raged through the region have left a long-lasting mark, whether it’s lengthy reconstruction efforts or the stark, charred tree trunks that cover the mountains. But it’s more than that. To an outsider, the fires feel intangible, terrifying yet somehow conceptual. Talking to those that lived through them, however, makes you instantly realise quite how petrifying that season was. The trauma of those flames is still smouldering away.  In 2017, fires hit Northern California on 8th October, however most producers had already harvested. Indeed, the fire even crossed the Kistler property, but their vines helped act as a firebreak. Two years later the Kincade fire swept through Sonoma County at the end of October. But in 2020, the first fires arrived earlier. The LNU Lightning Complex started with what is known as the Hennessey fire on 17th August. Sparked by lightning after thunderstorms, the complex was a weave of 250 different fires that collectively raged through almost 150,000 hectares of the region. The damage was enormous: 1,491 buildings were destroyed and six people lost their lives. While the fire did diminish in size, it wasn’t entirely extinguished until 2nd October, almost a month and a half after it started.  Before the Lightning Complex had fully subsided, the Glass Fire attacked. The blaze started on 27th September, east of St Helena near the Silverado Trail, spreading north to Calistoga and then south and west, towards Santa Rosa. It burned until 20th October, encompassing over 27,000 hectares and taking over 1,500 buildings with it, including numerous wineries. It cut through Eisele Vineyard, across 90 acres of hillside and forcing them to rip up 1,000 vines. Fortunately they’d already picked all their fruit (finishing their harvest three days before the fire broke out, on 24th September). And this was all in the midst of Covid-19.  Wildfires aren’t new in Northern California, but they’re certainly more prevalent than ever before. Indeed, as Cory Empting – Director of Winegrowing at Promontory, Harlan and Bond – tells me, the region’s indigenous people, the Wappo, used to describe autumn as “smoky mountains”.  Paul Hobbs – who has been making wine in “the Valley” (as the locals would say) since the late 1970s – remembers a fire in the 1980s that burned its way along the Silverado Trail. “All it took was a gust of wind,” he says – and one flame turned into something uncontrollable in the blink of an eye. He remembers climbing up on a roof to see the sobering effects of the fire.  Perhaps partly due to this early exposure, fires have always been at the forefront of his mind when picking a site – avoiding rugged, dry areas like Diamond Mountain or Calistoga. And he is exacting with forest management of the sites he works – even on our wander around his Goldrock Estate vineyard, he notices some saplings that are troubling him, and calls over his vineyard manager to take a look, conscious to reduce the risk as much as possible. And he’s deservedly cautious. The 2017 vintage was his first working with Cleary Estate out in Freestone-Occidental, and he paid almost $2 million for fruit that he couldn’t use. The fire itself is one challenge, however vines are natural firebreaks so don’t tend to suffer much direct damage (although the heat from a blaze can sometimes scorch vines). The real threat, however, is in the air – smoke. But the science of smoke taint is complex, and poorly understood. Producers can send samples to laboratories to be tested for the compounds responsible for the taint (guaiacol and 4-methylguaiacol) but the exact level of perception isn’t known. These compounds also naturally occur in some varieties, eg Syrah, and come from oak barrels (in particular the toasting process).  Of course the impact of smoke is dependent on proximity to the fire, the intensity of the smoke, elevation and the wind. Hobbs explained how in 2020 much of the smoke from the Glass Fire stayed north for several days, but then the wind shifted and sent it south to the Bay Area. As smoke travels, and ages, the volatile compounds also degrade, so there is also a significant difference between the impact of “fresh” smoke, versus what Hobbs describes as “atmospheric” smoke. The latter may look bad, but it’s unlikely to hold significant taint, whereas if you’ve got fresh smoke, it’s “game over”.   Lots of producers do micro-ferments to look for smoke taint, testing to see if it’s worth the expense of picking the fruit and making the wine – however that’s also not a sure-fire way to know if you have smoke taint. The nature of these compounds means that they can lurk, undetectable in a wine, and emerge in bottle as hydrolysis occurs. “That’s why it’s so insidious,” Hobbs says.  If you’ve got smoke-tainted fruit, the options are limited. The compounds are concentrated in the skins, so the aim is generally to minimise skin contact. Indeed, some producers made rosé in 2020, having picked earlier, with higher acidity than normal. Otherwise you can use reverse osmosis or spinning cone (both expensive processes that are used for de-alcoholisation), or carbon fining – or a combination of all of the above – to try and strip out the smoky flavour. The result, as Mark De Vere MW at Robert Mondavi said of trials they’d done, it generally didn’t work, but if it did, “It took so much else out.” (Robert Mondavi ended up making almost no 2020 wine.)  *  Read anything about 2020 and there is a cacophony of opinion. “Everyone handled the vintage differently,” Cate Kistler of Occidental told me. They picked on 18th August, not in response to the fire, but because that was when the first fruit was ripe. They didn’t do any micro-ferments or send samples to labs (“We’re not data-crunching people,” Kistler says). The cost of picking was, for them, “a drop in the bucket” in comparison to farming the vineyards the rest of the year, so they tried to do what they could.  “It was going to be either Occidental, or nothing,” she said with a shrug. They took their time, committing to making every decision as if it was a normal year, finishing on 6th September just as the Labor Day heatwave hit. They didn’t use everything they picked, but they made all five of their single-vineyard wines – and the 2020s we tasted are glorious.   Some, like Colgin, didn’t make any wine at all, while many producers made around 40% less (such as Williams Selyem and Peter Michael). Many of the 2020s that will be released were picked before the fires struck. Cathy Corison had all her fruit safely in the winery more than two weeks before the Glass Fire hit, but the challenge was to keep the smoke out of the winery. She bought industrial grade air filters to shield her ferments. “They’re beautiful,” she says with a quietly proud smile.  At Dalla Valle, Maya Dalla Valle doesn’t pretend that it was an easy year, but she’s pleased with the wines they made (all with fruit picked before the Glass Fire). As ever, these are wines that speak of their year – which wasn’t just the fires, but a hot, dry year that (along with a block that was being re-grafted) cut their crop to a mere 2,700 cases in total. At Dominus, they did micro-ferments after the Lightning complex, and had picked their last row of fruit on the morning the Glass Fire broke out.  Steve Matthiasson – the leading viticulturalist who also has his eponymous label with his wife Jill – told me how it was set to be “an epic season” before the fires hit. He highlighted how the smoke meant there was less UV light reaching the grapes, and that meant the fruit wasn’t as phenolically ripe. They pick early, so had started harvest 10 days before the Glass Fire broke out. The Cabernet Sauvignon in their Phoenix vineyard was still out, but they managed to pick it the morning after the fire broke out, before the smoke was able to take effect.  Most who picked early are in agreement that the hot, dry conditions were in their favour. Promontory saw only eight inches of rain, versus the 30 of a normal year. But that hydric stress helped them – it meant the crop was small and the vines shifted to ripening the fruit earlier, so even though they picked on 22nd August they had no pyrazines. As Will Harlan says, in some ways, “The stars aligned”.  The 2017 vintage might have prompted people to start thinking about climate change, but 2020 was a real wake-up call for the region. It prompted Martin Reyes MW to try and create a community around climate action. Eventually, working alongside Anna Brittain, he founded Napa RISE (standing for Resilience Innovation Sustainability Empowerment), a climate and wine symposium that first took place in 2022 (with the 2023 symposium currently underway). It’s early days, but they’re “trying to build into the DNA [of Napa RISE] this notion of action”. He’s keen to avoid a conference focused on discussing concepts, but an industry convention that drives change.  One part of that conversation is inevitably fire – and a session last week focused on forestry management. “The relationship with fire we have is complicated – but it can be a healthy relationship,” Reyes tells me.   Controlled burning has long been a part of life for indigenous peoples – both in North America and Australia, where wildfires have now become a threat. In the US, controlled burning was officially banned in 1911 when the Weeks Act was introduced, but California is gradually realising the need for its reintroduction.  “Agroforestry was happening before conservation took it off the table,” Empting (of Domain W. Harlan) tells me. He talks about how when the previously evicted Miwok people were allowed to return to Yosemite, they were horrified by what they saw – where “conservation” had destroyed the ecosystems. For native peoples, seasonal work like controlled burns was a way of life – seen as their responsibility to the land. But it was a responsibility that colonialism robbed from them, and didn’t take on.  At the Pepperwood Preserve, native peoples do controlled burns. Empting visited to explore the practice and see if it’s something they could take up as part of their stewardship of the land. The challenge today is the paperwork – and politics. Permits are difficult to obtain, the fire department is reluctant and has to be involved, and then there are the neighbours to contend with.  Hobbs highlights that it’s not just that there aren’t enough controlled burns, but that manmade structures have taken over swathes of land – and they burn hotter, leading fires to rage in less predictable ways.  Of course, as with 2017, the 2020s are already being marred by rumour and reputation of a smoke-tainted year. The reality is so much more complex – and, although I haven’t tasted enough to make pronouncements on the vintage, there are some brilliant wines. Of course you’ll need to choose carefully, but for top producers there is nothing to be gained by releasing wine that is anything less than flawless.  While the fires have left scars, the land’s capacity for renewal is remarkable – with vibrant vegetation flourishing in amongst the scorched trees. The 2020 vintage wasn’t the first to see such challenges and it won’t be the last. The soils can recover, and so can the people, but a sustainable way to manage these threats is essential to long-term survival. Read more about California or browse all California listings

Wildfires have become a yearly occurrence for Napa and Sonoma – but what is their impact, and how can producers handle the effects? Sophie Thorpe spoke to some of Northern California’s leading producers to investigate the issue

Talking to Napa and Sonoma’s top producers about wildfires and the 2020 vintage – Paul Hobbs, Harlan, Kistler, Occidental, Promontory, Mondavi and more

Wildfires and the 2020 vintage in California

The way the wind blows

Exploring the world of eaux de vie with artisan distillers who are elevating the ancient harvest ritual to the realm of alchemy

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FONDATA: The quest for distilled perfection - eaux de vie

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Jakoby Mathy

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